Text | Li Linyi Investigator of Asia-Europe Issues, International Department of Xinhua News Agency
The first meeting between Russian and American leaders after Biden took office was held in Geneva on the 16th. In view of the situation in Ukraine, which is highly concerned by all parties, both Putin and Biden expressed their support for resolving the Donbass conflict on the basis of the Minsk Agreement. However, Biden did not make a clear statement on the issues that the Ukrainian government is most concerned about, such as joining NATO.
On June 16th, US President Joe Biden (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin shook hands in Geneva, Switzerland. Xinhua News Agency/AFP
Analysts believe that the Ukrainian issue does not involve the core interests of the United States, and the United States only uses Ukraine to launch a geopolitical game with Russia. In the future, the fate of Ukraine as a geopolitical "pawn" will not change, and it is difficult for Ukraine to obtain substantial help from the West on key issues involving its own interests.
"NATO Dream" is broken
Since the beginning of this year, Ukraine has been actively seeking to join NATO, and this demand has become particularly strong on the eve of Biden’s visit to Europe. Worried that the meeting between Putin and Biden might reach some unfavorable consensus, Uzbek President Zelensky tried his best to facilitate his meeting with Biden before the "general meeting", but ultimately failed. To appease Ukraine, Biden telephoned Zelensky on the 7th and invited him to visit the United States in July.
However, Zelensky not only failed to get the guarantee of "entering the contract" during the call, but also made an "Oolong Incident". The Ukrainian President’s Office issued a statement on the same day, saying that Biden stressed the importance of providing Ukraine with the "NATO Member States Action Plan" during the call. The White House National Security Council immediately "rumored" that Biden had not made similar remarks. Uzbekistan then had to make corrections, saying that this remark came from Zelensky himself.
The NATO summit held on the 14th also failed to provide Ukraine with a clear "accession" plan. Although the joint communique issued after the summit expressed support for Ukraine to become a member of NATO, it did not mention the specific timetable for Ukraine’s "entry into the treaty." Zelensky condemned this.
Biden said after the NATO summit that Ukraine’s "accession to the treaty" depends on whether Ukraine meets a series of NATO standards. At present, Ukraine still needs to solve problems such as domestic corruption. He stressed that Ukraine’s "entry into the treaty" is not something that the United States can decide, and Ukraine should also convince other NATO members.
This is the scene of the NATO summit filmed at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium on June 14th. Xinhua News Agency (Photo courtesy of NATO)
Experts believe that Russia has repeatedly warned the West not to cross the "red line" on the issue of Ukraine’s "accession to the treaty", and the West is unwilling and afraid to provoke Russia. In addition, Ukraine, with its weak economy and unresolved territorial disputes, is a heavy burden for NATO.
Ukraine’s "accession" efforts have been going on for many years. In 2014, the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) amended two laws and gave up the country’s non-aligned status. In 2019, the Ukrainian parliament passed a constitutional amendment to determine the basic route for Uzbekistan to join the EU and NATO. In June 2020, Ukraine became the sixth country to obtain the status of NATO’s "capacity enhancement partner". However, the west has always been ambiguous on the issue of Ukraine’s "accession to the treaty."
The "money bag" is flat
Another major grievance suffered by Ukraine in the near future is that the United States has announced that it will partially abandon the sanctions on the "Beixi -2" natural gas pipeline. This move may replace the traditional natural gas pipeline that transits Ukraine, and Ukraine may not be able to continue to charge high natural gas transit fees or import natural gas from Russia at preferential prices.
On May 19th, US Secretary of State Blinken suddenly announced that the US decided to lift the sanctions against the "Beixi -2" joint-stock company and its responsible person who participated in the construction of the "Beixi -2" natural gas pipeline. The White House said that the construction of the pipeline was "unstoppable" because it was actually nearing completion. This sharp turn of attitude of the US is considered to ease the tension between the United States and its allies, especially the relationship between the United States and Germany, caused by Trump’s administration.
On the 2nd of this month, Zelensky said that the completion of "Beixi -2" may result in a loss of US$ 3 billion a year, which will make Ukraine unable to bear its own military expenditure. He said that no matter from the economic or security point of view, "Beixi -2" refers to the "heart" of Ukraine, and only the United States can stop its completion.
Blinken put forward several so-called solutions to Ukraine. One is to seek to extend the existing Russian-Ukrainian gas transit agreement; the other is to compensate Ukraine for the economic losses caused by Russian gas bypassing Ukraine; and the third is to fully tap its own energy potential and reduce its dependence on Russia.
On May 6th, Ukrainian President Zelensky (left) bumped his elbow when meeting with US Secretary of State Blinken in Kiev. Xinhua News Agency (Photo courtesy of the Office of the President of Ukraine)
Experts believe that Blinken’s suggestions are empty talk. Whether the Russian-Ukrainian natural gas transit agreement can be postponed depends on Russia’s wishes, and whether Europe will compensate Ukraine’s economic losses is not up to the United States, and it is difficult for Ukraine to get out of the predicament of high energy dependence on imports in the short term.
Putin said at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on the 4th that after the expiration of the Russian-Ukrainian natural gas agreement, it is still possible for Russia to transport natural gas to Europe through Ukraine, but this requires Ukraine to release goodwill.
It is difficult to "seek asylum"
Biden said during and after the US-Russian leaders’ meeting that the United States supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and the settlement of the Donbass conflict on the basis of the Minsk Agreement. Compared with his predecessor, Biden’s statement was nothing new, which disappointed Uzbekistan.
Experts believe that the main purpose of Biden’s trip to Europe is to repair allies and control Russia-US relations in a "stable and predictable" range, so the United States will not provoke Russia on the Ukrainian issue.
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Ukraine turned to the western camp in an all-round way and took joining NATO as the basic strategic direction of the country. In order to gain the recognition of western countries, Ukraine does not hesitate to confront Russia. However, the facts over the years have proved that the West has never really accepted Ukraine, which is only a "pawn" for the United States to contain Russia, and supporting its accession to NATO is only a "blank check" written by the United States.
On June 16, US President Biden (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Geneva, Switzerland. Xinhua News Agency/AFP
Ukraine’s position on the eve of the Russian-American meeting and its efforts to seek the support of western partners show that Ukraine seems to be more afraid of becoming a "abandoned child" than being a "chess piece". However, whether it is the question of natural gas pipeline or joining NATO, the west has failed to provide Ukraine with a satisfactory answer.
Experts pointed out that the trend of US-Ukraine relations largely depends on the evolution of US-Russia relations. When the United States has political needs, it will provide some support to Ukraine, otherwise it will be left aside and treated coldly. For a long time to come, Ukraine will be unable to change its fate as a geopolitical "pawn".
