If the doorway steps are higher than level 4, the passenger flow will be reduced by 30%? What other catering dark logic do you know?

Original Wang Yingli Kuaiwan Thinking

Tips: This article is about 3,879 words, and it takes 9 minutes to burn the brain. Wang Yingli, a journalist who thinks about chopsticks, sent it in Beijing.

From the semantic point of view, dark logic corresponds to bright logic, that is, something that can be seen at a glance, but it is difficult to understand if no one says it. For example, a deer is called a deer, which is bright logic, while a deer is a horse. At a certain moment, it is called a "horse" instead of a "deer", which is dark logic.

Take the steps at the entrance of a restaurant as an example, if there are several more steps, the obvious logic is called "step by step promotion", but if the store doesn’t know how to trigger the momentum of step by step promotion, it will fall into a dark logic dilemma. Professional investor Xiong Bin said, "If the steps at the entrance are higher than 4, the traffic will be reduced by 30%", and there are radicals, such as "Le Jie", who thinks that "there is one more step at the entrance of the store, and the passenger flow will be reduced by 10%.

What are the dark logics of the catering industry?

In a sense, the dark logic of catering affects the development of stores. In the development of physical stores, the first thing to do is to talk about traffic.

1) The higher the steps at the door, the worse the business.

A few years ago, the top floor coffee opened in the community and office area was popular for a while. We once visited a top floor coffee brand, which was opened between the community and the office building. When customers arrive at the store, they need to walk up more than ten or twenty steps, then walk into the community on the second floor, then take the elevator, and then go upstairs to the store. This kind of store has a lot of punching information, but the actual passenger flow is very small. It is difficult to go to the second time almost once, perhaps because the road is too detour.

There are also some shops on the first floor that have been raised, with seven or eight steps or a small slope. The shops are high above the customers’ heads and look very imposing, but their practicality is poor. It is easy to fall and sprain their ankles, and customers are tired when they walk up. In addition, it is not convenient for suppliers to deliver goods. Therefore, there is a saying in geomantic omen that "a high platform and steep slopes are beyond the ordinary people’s control". If you do well, you will be lucky; if you don’t do well, you will be terrible. It’s so extreme.

For shopping malls, why are all cheap and affordable underground, but the upstairs is a big restaurant? The detour logic is also applicable, because the upstairs is difficult to walk, so we can’t rely too much on the flow of people, which will inevitably lead to the difficulty of getting along with low-profit catering brands in high-rise buildings, while the underground goes downhill first, with less psychological pressure on customers and more people, but the better position is on the first floor.

The more convenient it is for customers, the better the traffic. By the same token, adding a door when the door is open will reduce the number of customers by half.

2), Jinjiao silver grass belly, the god of wealth is not in the middle.

Jinjiao’s silver-edged grass belly and corner shops are better and more expensive. This should be regarded as a clear logic, because everyone is talking about it. The scenery in the middle is good, but it is surrounded by the front and back, which is really not conducive to the new store to attract passengers.

3) The width of the street is directly proportional to the number of passengers.

The street refers to the road in front of the shops. The wider the road, the more leisurely the pedestrians are, the narrower the road is, the faster the pace of pedestrians will be, and the pace will affect the subconscious mind, which will lead to lower consumer demand. This is the general knowledge of consumer psychology. In addition, under the viaduct, straight into the street, pedestrians in a hurry, these are all fierce in Feng Shui.

4) Fit is very important, retail to retail and catering to catering.

A street is surrounded by hardware stores and grocery stores, and suddenly there is a noodle restaurant in the middle. The business of this store is generally not very good; There are fruit stalls, vegetable stalls and vegetable markets next door. Although there are a lot of people, it is not suitable for opening restaurants, because they are just people, not passengers. Fresh food places are gathering places for cooking people. They have low demand for going out to eat, and there are a lot of people, and the rent is expensive. If people can’t be converted into passengers, it doesn’t make much sense to have more people.

But if you open a pancake shop, a steamed bun shop, a pot-stewed restaurant and a snack bar near the vegetable market and fresh food shop, it is ok, because retail is retail, buying food belongs to retail, and the steamed bun shop strictly belongs to retail. It is a side event for people who go home to cook to buy steamed buns as a staple food and buy fried chicken legs for their children. Consumption is to cater to human nature and people’s hearts, and it is easier to do side events.

The same is true for catering.

5), it’s not that old brands don’t go to new business districts, and it’s not that veterans don’t touch many transfer stores.

"New" means change. Old brands bring their own traffic, so they can go to new business districts. After all, there are many preferential policies, but most new brands don’t have the strength to keep stores, so they can’t go to new business districts.

For stores that are transferred many times in a short period of time or within a year, even if the location is good, it is best not to touch them. Conversely, there are very few stores transferred in the business circle, which also means that this business circle is very valuable.

6) Carefully open stores under big trees and places with isolation belts.

It is good for passers-by to enjoy the cool under the big trees. The big trees will block the facade signs, and deciduous soil will breed mosquitoes. At the same time, the existence of big trees will narrow the streets, which is unfavorable in general. If the isolation belt is added, customers will have to detour to get there. This is the same as adding steps and adding a door. In fact, it is an anti-consumer behavior.

Don’t worry if you don’t understand dark logic. Strength can solve most problems.

Once again, the clear logic is that wine is not afraid of the depth of the alley, while the dark logic is that "once the alley is deep, the wine will not smell."

1), light and dark logic are two sides, and it is fundamental to find the bottom of dark logic and bright logic.

From the point of view of "wine and alley", we can see that the logic of light and the logic of dark are two sides of one body, which is right in any way. For example, it is an "axiom" for Jinjiao’s Yinbian grass belly, but some people can casually cite the case that it is located in Jinjiao, and for example, there are one more step and the passenger flow is 10% less. Then why do so many people rent stores with steps and stairs? Why are so many stores with seven or eight steps so hot?

It’s like saying that you can’t drink raw water and you will have diarrhea. At this time, someone will jump out and say, I’ve seen someone who drank raw water all his life and lived to 99 years old, but the health expert can’t live to 50 years old …

The question is: what reversed the dark logic? From the perspective of drinking raw water, it may be determined by personal physique, immunity, age, living habits, living structure, etc. That is to say, any dark logic can be reversed, but it is conditional and there are still many conditions. Therefore, what smart people look at is not the case, not what happened, but the conditions behind the case and what supported this case.

2), don’t understand the dark logic is not the original sin, the inability to turn over is.

In the catering industry, Jinjiao is the best store location, so will it win if it is opened in Jinjiao? Not necessarily. Jinjiao is a resource. For example, if you want to buy apples and a catty of apples is 3 yuan, then if you have one million dollars, can you buy the best apples? Not necessarily, because you can also buy more and worse inferior apples. Obviously, success or failure is related to resources, but the algorithm about resources (utilization rate/conversion rate/input-output ratio, etc.) is the final key.

For example, suppose that one more step will reduce the passenger flow by 10%. A store has five steps, and it can earn 1000 yuan in one day of normal operation, while the five steps will reduce the passenger flow by half, and the income is only 500 yuan. In this context, we assume that the resource transformation ability of store A is 1.

Another store B is the same as Store A, but it has six steps.

Generally speaking, the income of store B should be lower than that of store A, but if the resource conversion ability of store B is better, assuming it reaches 3 (such as better taste, stronger brand power, better reputation, better service level, etc.), then the income of store B will be 1,200 yuan. Although the steps are higher and there are more obstacles, it can completely explode store A because of its stronger resource conversion ability.

On the other hand, Store C is located in Jinjiao, but the store’s reputation is not good, the products are average, and the price is expensive. The waiter keeps a straight face all day, and its resource conversion ability is not even 1. Once it is lower than 1, the managers are unaware of the problem, and this value will inevitably continue to decline, from below the decimal point to a negative number, which will eventually lead to the decline of the store.

Further, if dark logic is inferior, such as poor location, ignorance of management, etc., but what is done is done, then it depends on the ability of resource transformation, such as poor flow of people, so is there a drainage tool and can it improve consumption stickiness? For example, if you don’t know how to operate and can’t serve, can you sign up for a class, read a book, find an expert diagnosis to improve the value of the next store, improve the viability of the store, etc., and then win by improving the ability to transform resources?

For example, the store can only attract 100 guests a day in the early stage, but because of the later renovation and construction of two steps, 20% of the guests were dissuaded, and only 80 guests came every day. In the later stage, the store can attract 200 guests a day by doing word of mouth, improving product strength and brand strength, etc., even if it still dissuades 20%, but because of the large base, there are still 160 guests at this time, and in the later stage.

The early resources determine the starting point, and the late resource transformation ability determines the ceiling and the possibility of breaking it.

At this point, two key words can emerge in our minds: one is resources and the other is resource transformation ability. There are many dark logics hidden in these two aspects. If resources and resource transformation ability are integrated, then it is also a problem not to understand dark logic. For example, if you obviously have strong strength, why should you look for a problematic position? Therefore, knowledge, management and savvy are very important. Knowing dark logic can save you a lot of things, but if you don’t understand it, it’s okay. You can do more re-sales, communicate with customers and improve your resource transformation ability in time.

From the perspective that dark logic affects management and early and late development, Chopsticks Thinking (www.kwthink.cn) has a profound insight that you will be relaxed if you know a lot of dark logic, but what really plays a decisive role is the ability to transform resources.

For example, from the perspective of dark logic, dark logic says that "the alley is deep, and the fragrance of wine is useless", but if you have a strong ability to transform resources, you can change this situation and realize that "the fragrance of wine is not afraid of the depth of alley", but we must understand that it is not that the fragrance of wine is not afraid of the depth of alley, but that we can get customers through a series of reforms and efforts.

In the case of catering, resource transformation ability is telling us that, regardless of the turbulent dark logic, the later resource transformation ability determines the ceiling. With the deepening of business, the boss can figure it out. If I have strong resource transformation ability, then considering the dark logic, such as better resources and stronger resource transformation ability, brand development can have higher benefits and efficiency.

From a theoretical point of view, many people should be able to understand that the so-called dark logic is actually consumer psychology, covering transaction cost theory, human nature research and supply and demand theory. For example, steps and isolation belts are obviously lazy customers, and Jinjiao Yinbian grass belly is actually a bear breaking corn+human curiosity. People always think that better is ahead, but because of laziness+not eating grass again, they go back to another Jinjiao Yinbian. The answer is that the brand should be strong, and there are obvious steps, but customers are willing to take the initiative to overcome difficulties; It is obvious that there is a queue for N hours, but customers just can afford to wait.

The complexity of human nature and commercial competition are interactive. When personal subjective brand goodwill and suitable product solutions are put together, the transaction is reached. Brands should understand customers, understand customers’ psychology, and have strong products and brands. With competitive power and competitive advantage, consumption flywheel comes into being. Therefore, resources determine the early stage, and the ability of resource transformation determines the late stage, which is also the ceiling of the brand and the hammer to break the ceiling.

Original title: "If the doorway steps are higher than level 4, the passenger flow will be reduced by 30%? What other catering dark logic do you know? 》

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Foshan qichen V DD-i super hybrid price reduction information, with a discount of 26,000! There are plenty of cars.

[car home Foshan Preferential Promotion Channel] Recently, the model launched a price reduction promotion activity in Foshan market, with the highest preferential amount reaching 26,000 yuan, which reduced the minimum starting price to 95,900 yuan. If you are interested in this model, you may wish to click "Check the car price" in the quotation form to get a higher discount.

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Qichen V DD-i super hybrid has a body size of 4607*1917*1624 mm and a wheelbase of 2700 mm, which gives it spacious interior space. The side lines of the car are smooth and dynamic, forming a natural extension from the front face to the rear of the car, outlining a compact and powerful visual effect. The front and rear wheel tracks are 1640 mm, which ensures the stability and handling of the vehicle during driving. With 19-inch rims, the tyre size is 235/55 R19. Its unique rim design not only enhances the visual impact of the whole vehicle, but also provides good grip and comfort for driving.

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Lynk & Co 08 new energy price reduction information in Beijing! Special offer 178,800, act quickly

On the Autohome Beijing Promotions Channel, we bring you the latest good news! It is attracting many consumers with its explosive price promotions. At present, this much-watched model is undergoing an unprecedented price reduction promotion, with a maximum discount of 17,000 yuan, which makes the already cost-effective Lynk & Co 08 new energy even more attractive. The starting price is already as low as 178,800 yuan, which undoubtedly provides an excellent opportunity for car buyers to start. If you are interested in Lynk & Co 08 new energy, be sure to click "Check Car Price" in the quotation form to seize this rare discount opportunity and strive to achieve a more affordable landing price for your car.

北京地区领克08新能源大降价!特价17.88万,赶快行动

Lynk & Co 08 New Energy, as a dynamic new energy model, has a unique design and a sense of technology. In the front part, 08 New Energy adopts the family’s iconic urban aesthetic design concept. The exquisite air intake grille is decorated with chrome, which reflects the sharp LED headlights on both sides, showing the perfect combination of power and fashion. In the overall style, the body lines are smooth and dynamic, which not only conforms to the concept of environmental protection, but also does not lose the luxury temperament. It is a fashionable travel choice in urban life.

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The side lines of Lynk & Co 08 New Energy are smooth and dynamic, with a body size of 4820mm*1915mm*1685mm and a wheelbase of 2848mm, showing a spacious interior space. The front and rear track are 1635mm, ensuring the stability of the vehicle. The tire size is 235/55 R19, and the tires used not only provide good grip, but also complement the rim style, adding a sense of sophistication to the overall appearance.

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In terms of seats, high-grade leather materials are used, which not only feels comfortable to the touch, but also has heating, ventilation and massage functions. The driver’s seat is also equipped with power seat memory to ensure the driver’s comfort for long-term driving. The front seat is also equipped with headrest speakers to bring a richer entertainment experience to passengers. The second row of seats supports backrest adjustment, while the overall layout takes into account space utilization. The rear seats support proportional reclining, providing flexibility for loading large items.

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Youku variety show "Cat in the Box" ended warmly, and there were cat troupes competing with each other’s acting skills and tears on the scene

"Game of life, open the box and have fun", the all-star hilarious variety show "Cat in the Box" produced by Youku and broadcast by Du Xiaoman has ended successfully. Since the show went LIVE, it has received continuous attention from the industry and the majority of users. With its hilarious characteristics and drama theme, it has sublimated into the hearts of the audience step by step, and the heat and word-of-mouth have been harvested, triggering extensive discussion on the whole network. Recently, the last episode of the first season of Youku variety show "Cat in the Box" was launched, with flying players Gem, Wang Yang and character players Chen He, Lin Xinxin, Wu Bi, Wang Xun, Yin Zheng, and Zheng Kai (sorted by initials) unveiling the "tricks" in the company’s group chat. Character players will collectively take the stage to bring the drama "The Story of the Chicken Farm", laughing and crying, which fills people with expectations.

A new round of big "melons" arrived, and the players laughed and ate melons

Following the previous issue, Chen Xiaohe and Zheng Xiaokai "bullied" new employees, and the truth about Wang Xiaoyang and Yin Xiaozheng "bribing" leaders was revealed one after another, and the players were involved in a new round of public opinion turmoil about "W colleague is a murderer" "L colleague has a wife from eight countries". After a whole season of hilarious challenges, the players who have experienced hundreds of battles have gradually adapted to growth during the course of the game, and their cooperation with each other has become more and more tacit. Chen He has long understood the "mechanism routine" of the show after going through ten episodes of adventure, and successfully avoided the fate of being sprayed with black smoke; Lin Xinxin also gradually coped with it easily, dismantling the balloon earlier to obtain clues, accelerating the process of passing the level; Yin Zheng gradually promoted from the first time as a flying player "cowering" to the mind of the box cat, and became the "hope of the whole company" in the last issue, helping the team crack multiple passwords; Wu Bi, Wang Xun, and Zheng Kai "pointed to the box as ice" to break down props, dreaming of the moment when Zhang Yixing "scratched the wall clues" in the first issue; the flying player Gem was questioned as "still too young" and fell into the trap. He liked to mention "smoky makeup", which was quite "silly and sweet" compared with his good brother Chen Heyi Wang Yang was still calm when he was locked on the bed, and he used his feet to draw clues. During the "all members are united" challenge, the players who separated the two rooms also relied on tacit understanding to deal with the challenge perfectly, which was enough to see that the players became more comfortable in the box world, and then contributed more hilarious scenes.

After ten episodes of the program, the unknown and mystery of "Cat in the Box" has been renewed for a long time. On the one hand, the key-breaking part of the program has been constantly innovating, integrating various forms such as group confrontation and personal warfare in the early stage, integrating intelligence, physical strength and humor, constantly bringing the audience a new experience, and making "Cat in the Box" always in "Schr?dinger state" in a multi-dimensional and innovative way, full of freshness. For example, the last program set up a "pass the melon" link, which brought everyone back to the technology warehouse of the "perfect community" to pass information. In a completely soundproof state, it became a large empty ear scene in seconds, and the information was mistranslated into various versions, which was full of laughs; the "partial guessing" guessing part only showed the fingers of the portrait and other parts to increase the difficulty of the game. And players will also trigger unexpected hilarious effects under such rules. Chen He and his uncle chose "Screw Up" in the face of unsolvable questions, and their strength interpreted "There is nothing difficult in the world, as long as they are willing to give up"; Wang Yang confidently passed on the wrong answer, and stretched out his thumb to express "affirmation", and the humor index was full; Zheng Kai recognized Miao Miao at the speed of light and released "smoke bombs" to disrupt the rest of the players’ answering ideas; Lin Gengxin’s technology warehouse transformed into "equal hand figure", suggesting that the actress surnamed L did not recognize Liu Yifei either; and the phenomenon of "Zhao Liying and Zhang Yuqi" becoming universal answers appeared, and the laughter continued.

Role players play with each other’s acting skills, and the final show makes people laugh and cry

The Youku variety show "Cat in the Box" is produced by Huang Lei as the chief producer, and it is condensed into the core theme of the unit around the current social hot topic. Every time a player opens a "box world", they will start a hilarious journey in it, and gradually move towards the core of the issue during the process, and interpret the meaning and value through the player’s actions.

After going through a series of hilarious challenges, "the true face of the earth-shattering big melon" also surfaced. It turned out that Wu Xiaobi and Wang Xiaoxun just wanted to play a role-play tabletop game with their colleagues, while the so-called "eight girlfriends and eight children" of the old uncle and Lin Xiaoxin were just "cats and dogs" furry children. A series of normal events were distorted in the coding and decoding transmission of colleagues again and again, and turned into sensational rumors.

It is worth noting that in the last episode of the show, the character players Chen He, Lin Gengxin, Wu Bi, Wang Xun, Yin Zheng and Zheng Kai were transformed from the audience to the drama people on the stage, and performed "The Story of the Chicken Farm" together with Liu Xiaoyi and Zhao Xiaosu. From the perspective of a chicken, it vividly shows the process of generating rumors and the power of their mouths to destroy their bones, which aroused strong resonance among the audience. Many netizens said: "Many people are trapped in place by rumors, and they shed tears for this chick who is not afraid of rumors and dares to take a step forward."

Looking back at this season’s "Cat in the Box", it opens a deep exploration of the core issues of society with six "parallel box time and space", explores digital life and the relationship between two generations in "Summit School", focuses on the "nightmare" of trapped young people’s internal friction in "Midnight Visitors", shows the beauty hidden in imperfection in "Perfect Community", "Hot Town" bursts the bubble of traffic, restores the true self of colorful personality, "There is a cat troupe" allows emotions to take root and sprout, blooming brilliant flowers, and the last unit "The company has a cat" cuts the veil of rumors with the blade of reason. " In the virtual "box world", "Cat in the Box" mirrors reality, through the player’s twisting and stripping of cocoons during the pass, and highlights the theme in the form of drama, supplemented by the output of experts’ opinions at the end, to achieve in-depth interpretation of the entire topic, to create an atmosphere of endless meaning, and to convey the power of warming people’s hearts.

"Cat in the Box" is broadcast exclusively by Du Xiaoman, and co-sponsored by Xilinmen, Summer Refreshing Partner Nestle Tea Extract, and Health Guardian Bodybuilders. Life is about constantly going from one unknown box to the next unknown box, moving forward with a sense of yearning and mystery, looking forward to a cat troupe meeting again in the second season of "Cat in the Box", see you next year!

Sales have plummeted by nearly 40%, and NIO’s hope of turning around is already slim?

On May 1, NIO announced its sales for April. The domestic leading new force only delivered 6,658 new cars in April, a decrease of nearly 40% compared to March. In contrast, 25,681 new cars were sold at the same average price above 330,000, and 8,101 new cars were sold at JK. That is to say, NIO is not only no longer the top seller of new forces, but even failed miserably in the battle at the same price.

In early April, Li Bin said in an interview that if this year’s work is not good, 24 years will become another 19 years, that is, NIO may have to "return" to the ICU again. Judging from the current situation, this time may be further advanced.

What was the problem with NIO? Why did the new power, which was still in full swing in the past two years, suddenly fall into crisis? Let Kung Fu Car take everyone to take a look.

(1) The more models are sold, the fewer cars are sold

NIO has never been a brand that takes volume. As early as 2014, when the NIO brand was established, the slogan shouted was to represent domestic high-end electric vehicles to participate in global competition. But if there is no volume at all, the brand will be difficult to survive.

In December 2017, ES8 was launched, ES6 was launched in December 2018, and EC6 was launched in July 2020. NIO has completed the preliminary product layout. The three cars together can contribute about 10,000 units of sales per month, which was very moist at that time.

What’s more impressive is that NIO has "almost" achieved its goal. As an independent brand, its average transaction price exceeds 400,000 yuan, which is comparable to Mercedes-Benz and BMW, and far exceeds Audi. This result is also very scary. You know, this is a brand that has only been born for a few years, and it can be said that the sky is its limit.

But NIO’s subsequent performance was a big surprise. Since 2021, NIO’s new speed has accelerated significantly. ET7, ES7, ET5, EC7 have been listed successively, and old models such as ES6 and ES8 have also been rejuvenated. As a new force, NIO has seven models on sale simultaneously, but the monthly sales are only poor more than 6,000, which is very disappointing. As a comparison, the ideal three cars sell more than 20,000 per month, and the Tengshi (Parameter Shu Picture) sells more than 10,000 a car, and the polar krypton single model sells more than 8,000.

In the case of such a fragile brand, the "car sea tactics" are enough to show that NIO is casual in product definition. I talked to a former NIO engineer before, and he said that NIO’s approach is that the supervisor swings his arm and has no brains to start.

There is no clear definition before the project starts, and then there are more and more problems, and finally it is a work in progress or marginalized product when it is delivered to the market.

This approach will work in the "early days of entrepreneurship" in the future. For example, when ES8 first came out, although many functions were not opened. But because there are not many decent competitors at the same price, it sells well. But at this moment, in today’s highly invaded market, it is undoubtedly a great waste of resources to push new ones at will.

ET7, as a flagship sedan, is a front-drive platform, and ET5, as an entry-level model, is a rear-drive platform. The non-flagship ES7 entered the second-generation platform and lidar early, killing the "aging" ES8 in one fell swoop, but there is no market at all because of pricing issues. Such a slapstick operation is not uncommon here at NIO.

There is a saying that Li Bin and Qin Lihong are both liberal arts students, which makes them often do not make careful inferences and reviews when it comes to market layout, and are more willing to make emotional choices. On the one hand, this has created NIO’s unique humanistic temperament, but on the other hand, it has also caused the current chaos.

(2) The LeTV model is unsustainable. Is power exchange really the future?

Last year, NIO’s financial situation was already very bad. In 2022, NIO’s net loss for the whole year was 14.4371 billion yuan, of which 5.786 billion yuan was lost in the fourth quarter alone.

What is NIO’s response? At the same time as announcing the 2022 annual report, NIO said that 1,000 replacement stations will be built in 2023, and 500kW ultra-fast charging will be deployed "incidentally".

Why does NIO do this? In fact, it is to exchange services for the market. Compared to doing battery research and development, or building a battery production line. The return on investment ratio of power exchange services is immediate, at least the power station is actually increased. Tesla’s 4680 battery has cost a lot of money, and it has not been mass-produced for three years. If such investment is replaced by a power station, at least there is a real physical site. This is considered a major highlight of NIO. After all, for many users, power exchange is indeed very practical.

At the same time, NIO is "immune" to all price wars. No matter how Tesla and BYD are involved, NIO always insists on not reducing prices, which safeguards the interests of regular customers to the greatest extent.

But the crux of the problem is that today’s tram technology is becoming more and more mature, and the battery life is also constantly improving. When the actual battery life of high-end trams exceeds 500km, the added value brought by power replacement has become lower and lower.

At this time, consumers may pay more attention to the benefits. After all, the B-class ET5 sells more than 300,000, and the C-class Feifan F7 only sells 210,000, and the service seems to be less important.

In order to promote power exchange, NIO adopts the typical "LeTV model". The power exchange business is independent and placed outside the listed company, and then the power exchange business is continuously subsidized through the listed money. This seems "seamless", but as the NIO customer base continues to expand, the resources occupied by power exchange are also increasing, which will eventually feed back to the car price, that is, the price of NIO cannot be lowered.

That is to say, regardless of whether the battery is replaced or not, NIO’s users will eventually have to pay for this business. This is not a problem when sales increase, because doubled users can share these costs equally. But when NIO’s sales do not rise but fall, how can new car owners support the existing huge car owner base?

(3) To have faith, we must also look at the product

In the past few years, NIO could be said to be buying cars and giving away "Moments". There were NIO owners around Kung Fu Cars, and they were truly proud of their cars. They were very proud of NIO’s various activities and praised NIO’s various services.

But NIO should also realize that while this segment of consumers is important, they are far from the whole market. Most ordinary users still want high-quality and affordable models.

Not long ago, NIO launched the power station swap wish list function on the NIO App, where consumers participate in recommending the location of the power station. This may seem like a very "democratic" approach, but it may not be a good choice for the market. The location of the power station should be like opening a store, and "professional" choices should be made according to the local flow of people and the layout of the supplementary facilities, so as to ensure the interests of more car owners, not just the car owners to "vote".

The layout of products and technologies must be based on "professionalism", not emotion. Just like talking to the ideal engineer before about why the ideal doesn’t make cars, he replied that because the ideal customers at this stage are mainly family users, and the space of cars is difficult to meet, so he does not consider highlighting car products for the time being; when talking to the JK technicians about product definition, they said that it is not easy to break the game as a latecomer, and finally chose a relatively niche and the demand is not small.

To put it bluntly, if the market is already very crowded, as a latecomer to enter, there is a high probability that it will be cannon fodder. If there are still some gaps in the market, companies have a chance, provided that the price and positioning are appropriate in all aspects.

In a situation where all opponents are highly nervous, NIO’s careless market play, although it does seem to be a light weight, is inevitably gradually thrown away.

(4) Kung Fu shooting

In 2019, NIO was on the verge of bankruptcy because it could not raise money, and later Hefei City’s investment of 7 billion yuan saved it. I never thought that in this short two or three years, NIO would have to put himself in the "ICU" again, which has to be sighed.

Not long ago, Li Bin came out to reassure investors, saying that NIO was currently urgently saving itself, focusing on the four major fields of chips, mobile phones, sub-brands, and batteries. I don’t know if investors heard it or not. At least in Li Bin’s opinion, NIO’s product and technology layout is fine, so what kind of changes can be expected to be made.

Combined with the dilemma of Weimar, perhaps the entrepreneurial path of the first generation of new forces is about to be turned over.